Thursday, May 03, 2007

Gotta read this book

THE BLACK SWAN, The Impact of the Highly Improbable. By Nassim Nicholas Taleb. The hubris of predictions — and our perpetual surprise when the not-predicted happens — are themes of Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s engaging new book, "The Black Swan." It concerns the occurrence of the improbable, the power of rare events...

Any book that contains this quote is worth reading:

...and the author’s lament that "in spite of the empirical record we continue to project into the future as if we were good at it."